Reports

Executive Summary As a cultural mosaic of over 80 diverse ethnic groups, interethnic tensions, power dynamics, and historical context are central to understanding all aspects of Ethiopia’s political, economic, and social affairs. Faulty democratic structures, declining legitimacy,…

Prepared by: Laura Stevens, Daphne Wang, and Hashim Ismail Executive Summary Sudan has ranked as one of the most fragile states in the world for the past decade. Since the establishment of the interim government in August 2019,…

Executive Summary This diagnostic report examines trends in structural factors in South Sudan since 2m013 based on risk assessment indicators, global trends, and key stakeholder interactions. Based on this assessment the conflict in South Sudan is likely…

Executive Summary: Despite billions in aid and a series of international interventions, Somalia has ranked as the world’s most fragile state for much of the past decade. This raises the question as to what is driving…

Background Since gaining independence from Belgium in 1962, Burundi has been racked by successive waves of political violence. In the past fifty years, Burundi has suffered three civil conflicts, eight attempted coups d’etat, and two genocides. The…

Historical Background Much of South Sudan’s history leading up to secession was marred by civil conflict with the Sudanese government. Originating from accusations that the government was intending to renege on intentions to create a federalist state upon…

Executive Summary Following the partition of Sudan in July 2011, the breakdown of the CPA process on transitional governance has led the Nuba Mountain Region to a state of crisis, stemming from fragmented tribes with ethno-political allegiances…

Extract Fragility in brief Sudan is weak, with a government, economy and vulnerable populations at risk of instability. CIFP ranks Sudan as the most fragile state globally in terms of Authority due to extreme security threats posed by spoilers in both…

Prepared by: Caroline Delany and Sonja Varga* With the generous support of the Canadian International Development Agency. OVERVIEW This report provides an indicators-based assessment of conflict risk in Sub-Saharan Africa. The analysis crosses nine interrelated issue areas identified as underlying potential for…

Prepared by: Sonja Varga, Abdul-Rasheed Draman and Koren Mariott* With the generous support of the Canadian International Development Agency Executive Summary This report draws two important conclusions with regards to the risk of further instability in the Great Lakes region. First, the…